📊 Why housing inventory was stuck—and what’s changing:
🔹 Pandemic drop = wave of mortgages under 3%
🔹 By 2022, 65% of loans were below 4% (85% under 5%)
🔹 That “lock-in effect” kept sellers off the market
⏳ Fast-forward to today: loans over 6% jumped from 7% in 2022 to almost 20% in 2025. The lock-in is slowly loosening.
Mortgage rates tell the story of why housing inventory has been so tight—and why that may finally be changing.
When rates dropped sharply in early 2020, a surge of homeowners locked in mortgages below 3%. Even before the pandemic, many loans were already under 4%. By the first quarter of 2022, 65% of all outstanding mortgages carried rates under 4%, and a remarkable 85% were below 5%.
That created a huge “lock-in effect.” Homeowners were reluctant to give up a 3–4% mortgage for a new loan at 6–7%, which meant fewer homes hitting the market.
But time is working against that lock-in. As older loans are paid down and new loans are issued, the share of mortgages over 6% has climbed from just 7% in mid-2022 to nearly 20% by the second quarter of 2025.
In other words, the mortgage landscape is shifting. While low rates still hold many homeowners in place, the gradual rise in higher-rate loans could mean more mobility—and, eventually, more homes available for buyers.
#MortgageRates #HousingMarket #RealEstateTrends #HomeBuying #HomeSelling #HousingInventory #RealEstateInsights #MarketUpdate
